Joey Johnston

If you are already weary of the verbal run-up to college football season, if you are sensing more of a coronation than competition, if you want to see things really shaken up, we have some good news.

The No. 1-ranked Florida Gators can be defeated.

(Full disclosure: We’re not convinced the Gators actually will be defeated in 2009, but that’s another matter).

You have heard about the Florida defense, returning not only the 11 starters, but the entire two-deep roster. (Has that ever happened?) You have heard about the Gators’ blinding skill-position speed, enough to field a 4x100 relay team. You have heard about the mostly forgiving schedule (no Alabama or Ole Miss during the regular season, Tennessee and Florida State at home).

And you may have heard about quarterback Tim Tebow (just a few times).

But here’s something you haven’t heard much: What if Florida stumbles? What if the Gators have a bad day and the opponent plays out of its mind? What if there are injuries to key personnel?

Of course, you can apply that thinking to any good team. There are no unbeatable teams. Some of the most-hyped outfits in college football history (1983 Nebraska, 1986 Miami, 2005 USC) have gone down. It can happen to Florida, too.

The SEC hasn’t had a repeat champion since 1997-98 (Tennessee). The Gators never — not once — have had an unbeaten season in the school’s football history. During each of the Gators’ three national title seasons, somebody rose up and played a picture-perfect game to snatch victory away from Florida (Florida State in 1996, Auburn in 2006, Ole Miss in 2008).

So there you have it. Here are some logical candidates to defeat Florida:

• LSU (getting the Gators at home for a night game).
• Arkansas (visits Gainesville, but the week after Florida’s trip to LSU, so the classic letdown scenario exists).
• Alabama (potential SEC Championship Game opponent).
• Texas/Oklahoma/USC (potential BCS Championship Game opponent).

Now how does it happen? How do you beat Florida?

Take the lead (and hold it)
The Gators are an excellent front-running team. Games often get out of hand once Florida goes up by two touchdowns, then shifts into free-wheeling attack mode on defense.

Bottom line: Much of Florida’s success in the Tebow era occurred when the Gators simply pounded opponents into submission. The Gators have been far less efficient in tightly contested games that required a comeback.

Limit the big plays
Of course, the Gators are going to make some big plays. With Tebow, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and true freshman Andre Debose (remember that name) on hand, the Gators can’t be shut down completely.

Special feature Preseason Top 25 In-depth previews of nation's best teams NBCSports.com

But instead of double-digit big plays, what if the Gators were limited to, say, six of them? The chances for an opponent’s success goes up exponentially.

In 2006, Auburn was the only team to defeat Florida. The Tigers did it again in 2007. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp talked then of making Florida “bleed for the yards’’ while maintaining a disciplined, patient approach on defense. It worked beautifully. (And it must be noted that Muschamp moved on to Texas, the only team last year to defeat Oklahoma and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Sam Bradford during the regular season).

Win the turnover battle
Opponents must play mistake-free football and find ways for Florida to make the big mistake.

Ball-control offense
Tebow can’t score without the ball. Nothing is more frustrating to him and the Gators than facing a team that moves the chains. Auburn and LSU (2007) worked that plan to perfection in defeating Florida, which was prone to surrendering yardage on the ground during its losses in recent years.

Let’s get physical
By guarding the perimeter and forcing action to the center of the field, then allowing the linebackers and secondary to unload, the physical play can become a definite factor in the fourth quarter of a tight game.

Special feature Tebow time Take a look at Florida's star quarterback on and off the field. NBCSports.com

So if an opponent can take the lead … and if it limits the big plays … and if it can win the turnover battle … and if it maintains a ball-control offense … and if it plays with a physical edge …

(Yes, that’s a lot of if’s).

Well, then, the Gators might have a problem.

We can say this with certainty. If Florida is off its game, and the opponent follows the formula, the Gators can be beaten.

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That’s not exactly a stunning revelation in a sport that routinely produces crazy results on any given Saturday, but maybe it provides some perspective (and hope) heading into opening weekend.

Florida might be an overwhelming favorite. But it’s not a done deal — far from it.

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