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Jeff Benton

Trace Adams

By Al DeMarco GM - VegasAdvisors.com
Odds
updated 2:50 a.m. ET Nov. 4, 2009
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 Falcons Deliver as Double-Digit Dogs: 

The NFL seems to have a glut of bad teams this season. And with bad teams often comes an increased number of double-digit pointspreads, particularly when a powerhouse is meeting an also-ran.

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That wasn't really the case Monday night, though. Sure, New Orleans' high-octane offense is hitting on all cylinders. The Saints gain a lot of yards and score a lot points, more than anybody else in the league, in fact.

But the Falcons --- who made the playoffs last year --- don't fall into the also-ran category. Yet they went off as an 11 to 11.5-point underdog. Despite an implosion late in the first half, Atlanta was covering for a good portion of the game, and the Falcons forced a late fourth-quarter fumble when New Orleans really should have been in kneel-down mode. That turnover led to a Jason Elam field goal and a final score of 35-27, with the Saints notching the straight-up (SU) victory, but the Falcons winning against the spread (ATS).

Atlanta was one of five teams that went off as double-digit underdogs in Week 8, and those units went 4-1 ATS, with Carolina going so far as to post the outright upset getting 10 points at Arizona.

 Adding Up the NFL: 

The Falcons' efforts capped a good week for the underdogs, who went 8-5 ATS to close the gap a bit on the favorites. Through eight weeks of play, the chalks lead the pups at the betting window by a 61-55 count.

And with Atlanta cashing on the road, visitors also went 8-5 ATS over the weekend to improve to 62-54 against the oddsmakers for the year.

Although the Saints nabbed the SU win, they failed to keep pace with the strongest betting trend of the season in the NFL. Still, SU winners went 10-3 ATS in Week 8 and are 97-19 ATS in regular-season play, cashing at a stout 83.6 percent clip. Counting the preseason, SU winners are 153-24-4 ATS, beating the oddsmakers 86.4 percent of the time.

One more FYI related to last night's showdown in the Big Easy: The over on "Monday Night Football" this season is on an 8-1 tear and is 19-5-1 in the last 25 Monday nighters overall.

 College Football Two-Minute Drill: 

We've been waiting for this pretty much all season, and I'm happy to tell you that the Mid-American Conference --- the official conference of weekday college football --- is finally back. Bowling Green travels to Buffalo tonight in a colossal clash of two teams with 3-5 SU records. So without delay, let's check out some numbers:

Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these MAC squads, but the road team is on a 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry, and the underdog has cashed in four straight.

Bowling Green is on a 1-5 ATS slide and is on additional pointspread purges of 2-8 after a bye week and 1-4 on Tuesday, but the Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 roadies.

The Bulls have failed to cover in six of their last seven at home and are on an 0-5 ATS dive as a chalk (all in Buffalo), though they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 starts versus losing teams.

 NBA Fast Break: 

We'll wrap this puppy up today with some noteworthy NBA betting trends:

The Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games, and they are on ATS rolls against the 76ers of 12-4-1 overall and 12-3-2 in Philadelphia.

The Heat, hosting the Suns, are on pointspread upswings of 4-1 overall and 6-1 at home, and Miami has cashed in its last four clashes with Phoenix.

Phoenix is 1-7 ATS on its last eight trips to Miami, and the home team is on an 8-3 ATS roll in the last 11 clashes between these non-conference rivals.

  • Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com and the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at  VegasAdvisors.com

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